- What has changed, and why is this the case, since the open outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2007/08?Summary: The ‘2008 moment’: A combination of economic and geopolitical changes More
For our discussion but especially for our political work this report by the five presidents is of highest priority!
Does the unjust and forced ‘agreement’ between the Greek government (now facing the task of ratifying the agreement in the Vouli) and the other states in the European Union (not all of whom feel the necessity for such a sanction) mark the end of one era and the beginning of another? More
This post will pursue two aims: one, the individual communication has brought us to the conclusion that we should focus much more upon power relations. The development of the EU should be discussed much more in a horizon of debates which go way beyond discussions among governments. Two, the performance of the left Greek government is not a problem of more or less opportunism. The application of the scenario method really only makes sense when it is carried out in connection with possible developments of the relations of forces, starting with the analysis of its current conjuncture. Continue reading Power Relations, Balance of Forces
Scenarios are not (deterministic or probabilistic) predictions but explorations either of possible futures (forecasting) or of necessary policies to achieve a future considered as desirable (backcasting). They are usually understood to consist of a narrative illustrated by a computer simulation using parameters derived from the storyline and quantifying (parts of) the scenario. Unfortunately today, predictions, projections, probabilistic forecasts and more are labelled scenarios, while some scenarios like economic growth forecasts are presented as (probabilistic) predictions. Continue reading Joachim Spangenberg: System Complexity, Scenario Analysis and Indicators
While referring back to our starting post [stocktaking-scenarios.blog.rosalux.de/2015/03/19/prediction-and-explanation-in-political-action-scenarios-and-political-strategies/#more-22] – some working theses should be proposed:
The aim of this starting post is