Etienne Balibar, Sandro Mezzadra, Frieder Otto Wolf: The Brussels Dictat: And What Followed

Does the unjust and forced ‘agreement’ between the Greek government (now facing the task of ratifying the agreement in the Vouli) and the other states in the European Union (not all of whom feel the necessity for such a sanction) mark the end of one era and the beginning of another? More

Power Relations, Balance of Forces

This post will pursue two aims: one, the individual communication has brought us to the conclusion that we should focus much more upon power relations. The development of the EU should be discussed much more in a horizon of debates which go way beyond discussions among governments. Two, the performance of the left Greek government is not a problem of more or less opportunism. The application of the scenario method really only makes sense when it is carried out in connection with possible developments of the relations of forces, starting with the analysis of its current conjuncture.  Continue reading Power Relations, Balance of Forces

Joachim Spangenberg: System Complexity, Scenario Analysis and Indicators

Scenarios are not (deterministic or probabilistic) predictions but explorations either of possible futures (forecasting) or of necessary policies to achieve a future considered as desirable (backcasting). They are usually understood to consist of a narrative illustrated by a computer simulation using parameters derived from the storyline and quantifying (parts of) the scenario. Unfortunately today, predictions, projections, probabilistic forecasts and more are labelled scenarios, while some scenarios like economic growth forecasts are presented as (probabilistic) predictions. Continue reading Joachim Spangenberg: System Complexity, Scenario Analysis and Indicators

Prediction and Explanation in Political Action: Scenarios and Political Strategies

The aim of this starting post is

  • to explain the notion of a scenario as a reflection of a really existing contradiction/s which could be developed and/or solved in different ways depending on the real constellation of political forces;
  • to illustrate that a scenario in the second sense is also derived from special theoretical orientations, which are more or less directly connected with social and political interests
  • to show that the work on scenarios is very closely related to the work on political strategies and on every-day-policy.

Continue reading Prediction and Explanation in Political Action: Scenarios and Political Strategies