Greece is the country in which the eurozone’s public debt crisis began in late 2009. The policy response of the EU elites was to provide financial assistance on condition that a strict austerity-cum-deregulation policy is applied under the watchful guidance of the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the IMF (the so-called Troika). Five years later, the country is in an economic, social and political limbo, as a debt Deflation process has set in. More
This post will pursue two aims: one, the individual communication has brought us to the conclusion that we should focus much more upon power relations. The development of the EU should be discussed much more in a horizon of debates which go way beyond discussions among governments. Two, the performance of the left Greek government is not a problem of more or less opportunism. The application of the scenario method really only makes sense when it is carried out in connection with possible developments of the relations of forces, starting with the analysis of its current conjuncture. Continue reading Power Relations, Balance of Forces
Scenarios are not (deterministic or probabilistic) predictions but explorations either of possible futures (forecasting) or of necessary policies to achieve a future considered as desirable (backcasting). They are usually understood to consist of a narrative illustrated by a computer simulation using parameters derived from the storyline and quantifying (parts of) the scenario. Unfortunately today, predictions, projections, probabilistic forecasts and more are labelled scenarios, while some scenarios like economic growth forecasts are presented as (probabilistic) predictions. Continue reading Joachim Spangenberg: System Complexity, Scenario Analysis and Indicators
In politics, whoever can better influence the international media to push Forward their views has the upper hand, say political communications insiders. And this isn’t just the case during election campaigns: in the European Union, decision-making power depends not only on the size of a given player’s economy, but also on how it deals with international media. Continue reading By Nikos Sverkos: Secrets of Brussels Media Machine
While referring back to our starting post [stocktaking-scenarios.blog.rosalux.de/2015/03/19/prediction-and-explanation-in-political-action-scenarios-and-political-strategies/#more-22] – some working theses should be proposed:
- The further development of the EU depends essentially on dealing with some issues of decisive importance:
The aim of this starting post is
- to explain the notion of a scenario as a reflection of a really existing contradiction/s which could be developed and/or solved in different ways depending on the real constellation of political forces;
- to illustrate that a scenario in the second sense is also derived from special theoretical orientations, which are more or less directly connected with social and political interests
- to show that the work on scenarios is very closely related to the work on political strategies and on every-day-policy.
With the crisis the EU has changed and the left wing forces have also changed.
What is new, why could it develop and what does it mean?
Which ways of further EU development are probable?
which ways of changing the left are possible?”
Those questions are discussed at the 5th EU experts’ Discussion, Berlin, from December 11th until December 13th 2015. This is the blog to document preparation and results of the workshops.