About Stocktaking Scenarios

With the crisis the EU has changed and the left wing forces have also changed.

What is new, why could it develop and what does it mean?
Which ways of further EU development are probable?
Which ways of changing the left are possible?

Those questions are discussed at the 5th EU experts’ Discussion, Berlin, from December 11th until December 13th 2015. This is the blog to document preparation and results of the workshops.

Europe: What is Left? Working on Strategies

Please find our reader as an offer to the discussion

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Zakhar Popovych: Answers on the Workshop Questions

As Olexandr Kravchuk pointed Ukrainian oligarchic capitalism was not that much better before the 2008-2009 crises. Ukrainian economy was programmed for destruction More

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Joachim Spangenberg: Answers to the Workshop Questions

There have been several distinct phases. (1.1) In the beginning, there was general irritation how something so unpredicted could happen; even hard core economists were full of doubt. More

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Mathis Heinrich: The ECB and the Crises of the Eurozone

The European Central Bank (ECB) used to be a porotype of a politically, personally and financially independent institution with a strong ordo-liberal mandate. It duties were primarily focused on monetary stability, while others aspects such as financial issues More

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Etienne Balibar: Borderland Europe and the Challenge of Migration

We tend to think that the external limits of the European Union define the ‘real’ borders of Europe, which is a mistake. Confronted with the violent obscene images that have been reaching us ever since the influx of refugees More

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Anej Korsika: Answers on the Workshop Questions

Short answer would be: everything has changed. Though dramatic changes that have occurred on almost all areas of social life can easily support such a bold claim, we still need to be weary of the very nature of such change. More

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Judith Dellheim: (Again) On Capitalist Oligarchies

We can find such terms like „groups of elites“ or „ruling capital fractions“ in some posts on this blog. And reviewing the blogs for/of the previous EUexperts’ discussions, two remarks seem to be helpful: 1. the time, when the concept More

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Leonidas Vatikiotis: The Debt Issue and EU Scenarios

Please see the presentation

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Frieder Otto Wolf: How to Use the Present Crisis for Fighting for a Constitutional Process of the European Union

The European Union is an institutionalized association of member states which is functioning as a central element of the present global political and economical constellation of powers. Like this present constellation of powers on a global scale the EU is a structure of domination in which the capital groups More

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Leonidas Vatikiotis: Answers on the Workshop Questions

In a few words, everything has changed. Given that in Greece, the GDP has decreased more than 26% (something that has never happened again during peace period) and is going to decrease even more during 2016, the crisis has been proven to be the most significant turning point in the postwar period. More

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Leo Šešerko: On the Debate about Scenarios of EU Development

When we had the first EUexperts’ discussion in 2011, Leo Šešerko from Ljubljana started the debate about scenarios of EU development. We wanted to reload his text to help asking productive questions and understanding processes in reality and thinking about. Please click here.

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Mònica Clua-Losada: From the Squares to the Ballot Boxes: Understanding the Unfolding of Spain’s Political Crisis

The significance of the Spanish cycle in 2015 has been accounted for within many journalistic outlets. A thorough consideration of the processes within this cycle has not yet been produced. This brief contribution aims to highlight some of the key aspects of the current political situation in Spain. As an early disclaimer, I would like … Continue reading Mònica Clua-Losada: From the Squares to the Ballot Boxes: Understanding the Unfolding of Spain’s Political Crisis

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Claude Serfati: Some Reflections on the Basic Questions

What has changed, and why is this the case, since the open outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2007/08?Summary: The ‘2008 moment’: A combination of economic and geopolitical changes More      

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Attention: Five Presidents’ Report!

For our discussion but especially for our political work this report by the five presidents is of highest priority!

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Etienne Balibar, Sandro Mezzadra, Frieder Otto Wolf: The Brussels Dictat: And What Followed

Does the unjust and forced ‘agreement’ between the Greek government (now facing the task of ratifying the agreement in the Vouli) and the other states in the European Union (not all of whom feel the necessity for such a sanction) mark the end of one era and the beginning of another? More

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Power Relations, Balance of Forces

This post will pursue two aims: one, the individual communication has brought us to the conclusion that we should focus much more upon power relations. The development of the EU should be discussed much more in a horizon of debates which go way beyond discussions among governments. Two, the performance of the left Greek government … Continue reading Power Relations, Balance of Forces

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Joachim Spangenberg: System Complexity, Scenario Analysis and Indicators

Scenarios are not (deterministic or probabilistic) predictions but explorations either of possible futures (forecasting) or of necessary policies to achieve a future considered as desirable (backcasting). They are usually understood to consist of a narrative illustrated by a computer simulation using parameters derived from the storyline and quantifying (parts of) the scenario. Unfortunately today, predictions, … Continue reading Joachim Spangenberg: System Complexity, Scenario Analysis and Indicators

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On Scenarios (2)

While referring back to our starting post [stocktaking-scenarios.blog.rosalux.de/2015/03/19/prediction-and-explanation-in-political-action-scenarios-and-political-strategies/#more-22] – some working theses should be proposed: The further development of the EU depends essentially on dealing with some issues of decisive importance:

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Prediction and Explanation in Political Action: Scenarios and Political Strategies

The aim of this starting post is to explain the notion of a scenario as a reflection of a really existing contradiction/s which could be developed and/or solved in different ways depending on the real constellation of political forces; to illustrate that a scenario in the second sense is also derived from special theoretical orientations, … Continue reading Prediction and Explanation in Political Action: Scenarios and Political Strategies

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