While referring back to our starting post [stocktaking-scenarios.blog.rosalux.de/2015/03/19/prediction-and-explanation-in-political-action-scenarios-and-political-strategies/#more-22] – some working theses should be proposed:
- The further development of the EU depends essentially on dealing with some issues of decisive importance:
- the “Case of Greece”,
- the “Ukraine problem”,
- arriving at an adequate understanding of the global role of the EU and of its “security” – which are especially raising the issue of its relations to the United States,
- the issues of free trade, intellectual property rights, and “investment protection”,
- the issue of immigration to the EU,
- the pressing issues of climate and biodiversity, especially in relation to the energy problems of the EU,
- the issues of “demographic pressures”, referring in reality to questions on gender relations, inter-generation relation and inclusion of migrants.
- All these problems are of course the outcome of a long history, but their current shape is especially determined by the developments occurring and the policies pursued since the outbreak of the global financial crisis, and especially by the crisis management implemented in the EU during the last five to six years.
2. Specific possibilities and determinate ways of dealing with the problems referred to in our first point will depend, of course, on the balance of power between existing political forces which is, in turn, determined by the strength, hegemony and/or dominance of
- capitalist oligarchies which are all ( to a different degree) “uintegrated by and into the EU”, more broadly “europeanisised” and/or directly “globalised”,
- of the political forces within the member states defending a more or less “national” and/or “ethnical” orientation, and on the strength of their economic and social support,
- of the political forces within the member states defending some kind of an orientation towards gender, generation, European and global justice and solidarity, as well as on the strength of their economic and social support,
- of the political forces within the member states defending some kind of an ecological orientation, and on the strength of their economic and social support,
- of the political forces within the member states defending the interests of the socially and globally weakest, and on the strength of their economic and social support,,
- as well as on the readiness and the ability of the different political forces to make use of violence, in its more obvious and open forms..
- If we start by derivation from the complex societal-political constellations we shall arrive at five scenarios of EU development for the next 10-15 years (if you regard status quo plus/minus as one) or six scenarios (if you regard status quo plus and minus as two different scenarios): catastrophe, worsening/fall, status quo plus, status quo minus, improvement/progress and deliberation. And there are nine significant indicators capable of describing these scenarios: economy (connected with technologies), ecology, gender relations, social structures within the EU member states, spontaneous ideological relations, formal and societal political relations, relations between EU members, international relations in Europe, international relations on the global scale.
3.1 From a logical point of view, there are three types of catastrophe: total and non-reversible, huge and reversible with enormous efforts, selective and reversible.
3.2 You may also envisage three types of worsening/fall: with increasing dynamics, with a tendency to stability, with a tendency to improvement.
3.3 Analogously you may envisage the status quo with a tendency to worsening/fall/decline, to stability or to improvement/progress.
3.4 Further on, you may envisage three variants of improvement progress: with a medium-term tendency to decline or to reach stability or to lead to deliberation.
3.5 And with regard to deliberation you may discuss four possibilities: selective and reversible, selective and irreversible, totalizing and reversible and totalizing and irreversible. As we shall not engage in games in a technical sense for our workshop preparation, the question to be discussed will be about the real power constellation of agents with concrete interests and about the conditions and tendencies of change, which can be analysed by making use of this grid. Therefore we ask you, please, to analyse recent developments – especially of the last 5-6 years by making use of our proposed set of categories – and, in this very process, to think about possible dynamics and changes.